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Michael Crabtree Wil Not, and Should Not be Selected by the Seahawks
Value, value, value
One of the major reasons, in my opinion, those receivers taken in the top 10 struggle so mightily, so often, is that the salary they command is enormously disproportionate to their contributions to a successful team.
If a receiver catches six balls a game, generally touching the ball on about 10 percent of his team’s snaps, he’d end the season with 96 receptions, which would be hall of fame numbers if any receiver could ever sustain them.
However, when that player is commanding close to five percent of the team’s salary cap space, with 21 other starters and 31 other players making up for the other 95 percent, the receiver’s contributions are far overpaid.
While receivers like Hines Ward, Anquan Boldin and Terrell Owens have had notable impacts on their team’s running games, as a result of their blocking ability, I’ve never heard of a receiver doing any type of blocking drill at the combine.
So considering the idea that receivers drafted in the top 10 spend an average of 4.6 years with the team that drafted them, let’s look at this year’s free agent class, ranked by www.walterfootball.com
- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 31 years old
- Antonio Bryant, 28 years old
- Lance Moore, 26 years old
- Nate Washington, 26 years old
- Malcolm Floyd, 27 years old
- Devery Henderson, 27 years old
- Bobby Engram, 36 years old
- Bryant Johnson, 28 years old
- Shaun McDonald, 28 years old
- Michael Clayton, 26 years old
- Reggie Williams, 26 years old
- Brandon Jones, 26 years old
Six of those 12 receivers are leaving WCOs. Five of the six receivers leaving WCOs are 28 years old or younger, meaning that on a five year contract, they’d be 33 at the end.
Last season, at the age of 29, Javon Walker signed an inexplicable six-year, $55 million deal with $16 million guaranteed, with the Raiders. As a general rule, if your team is in a bidding war with the Raiders, Redskins or Cowboys, your team will lose, but for the better.
More akin to what should be expected from Houshmandzadeh, Jerry Porter signed a six-year, $34 million deal with the Jaguars, with $10 million guaranteed.
Conversely, last year’s fourth overall pick, the pick the Seahawks hold was Darren McFadden, who signed a six-year $60 million deal with $26 million guaranteed.
So for all intents and purposes, the Seahawks could sign Houshmandzadeh, and take flyers on both Michael Clayton and Reggie Williams for the same price as drafting Crabtree, and likely find a productive receiver from the bunch over the next five seasons, the same time frame as history shows they’ll keep Crabtree.
More likely, the team can take flyers on a young free agent or two, and then allocate some of the remaining money, far less than they’d spend on Crabtree, on re-tooling their defense, and upgrading the offensive line.
Also available, though perhaps at an expensive price tag, is Anquan Boldin. Last season, the Redskins allegedly offered two second round picks for Chad Johnson, and the Cowboys acquired Texas native Roy Williams from the Lions in exchange for a first round pick in the middle of last season.
I doubt the Seahawks would be willing to part with such compensation, but even if they traded the fourth overall pick straight across for Boldin, he’d likely command a salary less than Crabtree (think Javon Walker or less), has experience in a WCO under Dennis Green, and despite turning 29 next season, could conceivably have five more productive seasons left in his body, especially considering he’s a receiver who doesn’t rely on speed and quickness to get open.
However, if a team was willing to trade up to the fourth pick, likely the Jaguars, Jets or Vikings in my estimation, rookie contracts begin an exponential decline around the times those teams pick.
2008 8th overall pick: Five-year, $23.8 million, $17.1775 guaranteed
2008 17th overall pick: Five-year, $12.5 million, $8.86 million guaranteed
2008 22nd overall pick: Five-year, $10.525 million, $7.665 million guaranteed
At eighth overall, it is possible the Seahawks would have a shot at one of the elite tackles, Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe, or Michael Oher. Also, the team could have a shot at a wide receiver like Jeremy Maclin. In the latter two trades, according to the trade value chart, the Jets and Vikings would probably have to offer up a 2010 first rounder also to avoid wiping out their entire 2009 draft.
With options abound, and change in the air, it’s imperative that Ruskell make the right decision in 2009, and Crabtree is simply too risky.
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