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NFL Mock Draft: What If?
After a bizarre baseball offseason, one that saw former stars and future contributors remain unemployed for months on end, it is time for the NFL to take its first economic test.
Free agency in the NFL is very much a different system than in baseball. Baseball’s contracts, generally speaking, are individual to each player.
Players in baseball have long careers, much longer than football, and age plays a huge role in contract length and overall value. Also, the contracts are guaranteed, which changes the entire philosophy both from a player and owner standpoint.
NFL’s free agency saw the release of several veterans, however, that is something that has become commonplace in the salary-capped league.
Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall, in very Sabathia-Teixeira like fashion, cashed in with a Redskins team that spends money like they print it themselves.
However, the major economic hits for players came not for the proven, grizzled veterans, but for the players with question marks and short track records.
The NFL’s answer to that, spending money on unproven players, is the NFL Draft.
The MLB draft has seen serious falls for prospects that are less “signable.” From Stephen Drew to Jered Weaver to Andrew Miller we’ve seen prospects fall in recent years, often because their contracts and signing bonuses were too much of a financial burden for the teams interested in drafting them.
As the Lions discuss contract with Matt Stafford, there’s a possibility that that those discussions will fall through, as top-pick quarterbacks often command huge salaries.
For example, though Matt Ryan was taken third overall last year, he got a bigger contract than Jake Long, Chris Long and Darren McFadden, taken on either side of his draft position.
Often times, per Moneyball philosophy, teams draft college players with shorter ceilings but higher probabilities of success. Those players, typically, also command lower salaries.
It should be noted that this is a set of extremes, and perhaps the second or third options for each team. This is not a projection, but a hypothetical mock.
1. Detroit: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Raji’s projected anywhere from third to 12th overall. He’d be a huge discount, in all likelihood, in a contract that could be agreed to before draft day.
2. St. Louis: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Oher may be a better fit than Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe today, but his potential is limited. He’ll be cheaper than the other two also.
3. Kansas City: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
Scott Pioli’s first pick in New England was Richard Seymour. With Raji gone, Jackson may be the next best 3-4 defensive lineman available.
4. Seattle: Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio State
Jenkins would help the Seahawks re-tool their secondary, likely stepping in at safety. Also, he’d provide depth at cornerback and cover well in the nickel or dime.
5. Cleveland: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
The Browns need a middle-linebacker. With picks like A.J. Hawk and Lavar Arrington as precedent, paying huge money to Aaron Curry is inherently risky.
Picks 6 - 32
Home NFL Mock Draft Round 2
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